Sydney Kings vs Melbourne United NBL Round 16 Game Preview

Jan 8

2 min read

Tip-off is at 7:30pm AEDT on Thursday 9th January at Qudos Bank Arena

Sydney Kings vs Melbourne United Expert Analysis

The Sydney Kings welcome Melbourne United in what shapes up as a pivotal NBL25 clash. While Melbourne dominated the earlier season meetings, Sydney’s recent form at home suggests they’re ready to turn the tide.

Sydney have struggled against top-tier opponents this season, managing just one win from seven encounters against teams in the top four. However, they’ve been competitive in those losses, with an average margin of just 4.5 points. The duo of Jaylen Adams and Xavier Cooks remains the backbone of the Kings’ offence, with both players ranking in the league's top 10 for assists and among the top 15 scorers.

Melbourne United, meanwhile, are in a slump, losing five of their last six games. Their defensive efficiency, once among the best in the league, has plummeted. During this rough stretch, they’ve allowed an average of 106.8 points per game—nearly 20 points more than their season average before this downturn. Despite this, Melbourne still boasts a potent offence, ranking fourth in scoring.

Given Melbourne’s recent defensive woes and Sydney’s knack for close games, this matchup could come down to execution in the final minutes. Expect Sydney to take advantage of their home court and Melbourne’s struggles to secure a narrow win.

Key Matchups

Jaylen Adams & Xavier Cooks vs. Melbourne’s Defence

Adams and Cooks have been instrumental for the Kings, combining scoring and playmaking duties. Their ability to exploit Melbourne’s recent defensive lapses could swing the game in Sydney’s favour.

Melbourne’s Frontcourt vs. Sydney’s Paint Protection

With Melbourne hoisting more shots than usual, their frontcourt, will be crucial. Sydney’s strong interior defence (ranked first in FG% allowed) will aim to neutralize this threat.

Kings’ Bench vs. United’s Depth

Sydney’s bench has stepped up in key moments recently, particularly in their comeback wins. Melbourne’s second unit needs to provide consistent scoring to relieve pressure from their starters.

Key Stats

Sydney’s Defence: Ranked 2nd in the NBL, allowing 86.7 points per game.
Melbourne’s Recent Struggles: Averaging 106.8 points allowed over their last five losses.
Head-to-Head: Melbourne won both previous matchups this season, but Sydney are 7-4 ATS against Melbourne since 2021.
Xavier Cooks & Jaylen Adams: Both in the NBL’s top 10 for assists per game.
Game Total Trends: 8 of the last 11 games between these teams have gone under the total.

Why Sydney Will Win

Sydney’s ability to grind out wins in close games, coupled with Melbourne’s defensive struggles, tilts the scales in their favour. Playing at home, the Kings can exploit United’s lack of intensity, particularly through their star duo of Adams and Cooks.

Why Melbourne Will Win

Despite their slump, Melbourne has shown they can beat Sydney, winning both earlier matchups. If they can rediscover their defensive identity and limit turnovers, their high-scoring offence could overpower the Kings.

Conclusion

The Sydney Kings are primed to end their losing streak against Melbourne United. With home-court advantage and a more consistent recent form, they have the tools to edge out a tight victory. Melbourne’s defensive struggles and lack of cohesion make it difficult to back them confidently in this matchup.