Sydney Kings vs Adelaide 36ers NBL Finals Game Preview

Feb 11

2 min read

Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Thursday, February 13 at Qudos Bank Arena

Sydney Kings vs Adelaide 36ers Expert Analysis

Adelaide will advance to the Play-In Game against South East Melbourne, with Montrezl Harrell leading the charge in Xavier Cooks' absence.

Harrell is expected to dominate the paint, while Kouat Noi will be Sydney’s main perimeter threat. However, the Kings may not have enough firepower to overcome their recent struggles and the 36ers’ dominance in this matchup.

If there was one team Adelaide wanted to meet in the play-in, it was Sydney. The 36ers have swept the Kings this season, including two wins at Qudos Arena. Although they have lost their last three games, their most recent win was against Sydney in their home arena.

With Cooks unavailable, Adelaide’s offensive and rebounding weapon Harrell will have the advantage against Sydney’s undersized bigs. The Kings must be efficient in their shooting, especially from beyond the arc, against a 36ers team that ranks last in three-point defence. Despite Sydney's strong defence, Adelaide’s offensive weapons should get the job done for a fourth straight win against the Kings.

Key Matchups

Montrezl Harrell vs. Sydney’s Interior Defence

With Cooks sidelined, Sydney will struggle to contain Harrell, who has averaged 29.9 points and rebounds combined this season. His ability to dominate the paint will be crucial.

Jaylen Adams vs. Kendric Davis

Adams has been a scoring machine against Adelaide this season, including two 40+ point performances. He will need to replicate that form against Davis, who leads the league in assists and is the second-highest scorer in the NBL.

Perimeter Shooting – Sydney vs. Adelaide’s Defence

Sydney will rely on Adams and Noi to take advantage of Adelaide’s poor three-point defence. The 36ers allow the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league, which presents an opportunity for the Kings to capitalise from deep.

Key Stats

Adelaide have won 5 of their last 6 games against Sydney.
Adelaide’s average winning margin against Sydney this season is 11.33 points.
Kouat Noi has averaged 1.5 points in his last six matches.
Montrezl Harrell has averaged 29.9 points + rebounds this season.

Why Adelaide Wins

Adelaide has dominated Sydney this season, and the absence of Xavier Cooks further tilts the scales in their favour. Harrell will exploit the Kings' weakness inside, and Kendric Davis will provide scoring and playmaking. With their top-end talent leading the way, Adelaide should have enough firepower to outlast the Kings.

Why Sydney Wins

The Kings boast a league-best defence, and if they can disrupt Adelaide’s offensive rhythm, they stand a chance. Jaylen Adams will be their go-to scorer, and if Kouat Noi steps up from deep, they could expose the 36ers' perimeter defence. A disciplined, efficient offensive performance will be necessary for an upset.

Conclusion

This matchup favours Adelaide, given their season dominance over Sydney and the Kings’ recent struggles. The absence of Xavier Cooks makes it even tougher for the Kings to counter Adelaide’s inside presence. While Sydney’s defence can keep it close, expect Harrell and Davis to lead the 36ers to a fourth straight win over the Kings and a date with South East Melbourne in the next round.