South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers NBL25 Game Preview

7 days ago

2 min read

Tip-off is at 5:30 PM AEDT, Saturday, January 25 at State Basketball Centre

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers Expert Analysis

South East Melbourne Phoenix and the Tasmania JackJumpers face off in a crucial NBL25 clash with major playoff implications.

The Phoenix are determined to bounce back from a rare misstep against Sydney, while the JackJumpers are fighting to stay in the play-in mix amid a rough patch of form. South East Melbourne has won five of their last six matchups against Tasmania, including both encounters this season.

With Tasmania battling injuries and struggling offensively, the Phoenix’s high-powered attack, led by MVP candidate Matt Hurt, could spell trouble for the reigning champions. Will the JackJumpers’ gritty defence hold firm, or will the Phoenix capitalise on their dominance in the paint?

Key Matchups

Matt Hurt (Phoenix) vs. Tassie’s FrontcourtMatt Hurt has been unstoppable against the JackJumpers this season, averaging 22 points and six rebounds per game in their two matchups. Tasmania’s big-man injury crisis leaves them vulnerable to Hurt’s dominance in the paint, which could become a decisive factor.

Phoenix Offence vs. JackJumpers DefenceThe Phoenix rank second in points scored in the paint (43.8 PIP), while Tasmania allows the seventh-most (41.9 PIP). Tasmania’s top-ranked perimeter defence (31% opponent 3P%) will need to stay sharp, but if the Phoenix can establish their inside game, it could be curtains for the JackJumpers.

Key Stats

South East Melbourne Phoenix: 5-1 in their last six games against Tasmania, including both matchups in NBL25.
Tasmania JackJumpers: Averaging just 77 points over their past three games.
Matt Hurt: Scored 20+ points in both games against Tasmania this season.
Paint Points: Phoenix average 43.8 PIP (2nd in NBL), while Tasmania average just 35.0 PIP (9th).

Why South East Melbourne Wins

South East Melbourne boasts one of the league’s most balanced teams, with the third-best offence and defence in the NBL. Their ability to dominate the paint, combined with Tasmania’s lack of interior presence, puts the Phoenix in a prime position to exploit their opponent’s weaknesses. If Hurt continues his form and the Phoenix control the pace, this should be their game to lose.

Why Tasmania Wins

For the JackJumpers, defence is the key to survival. They’ve been the hardest team to shoot against from beyond the arc, allowing just 30.8% from deep. If they can force South East Melbourne into contested perimeter shots and grind the game into a low-scoring affair, they might just steal a much-needed win. Tasmania will need every bit of Kouat Noi’s energy and production to offset their offensive shortcomings.

Conclusion

The Phoenix have all the tools to secure a convincing win in this matchup, from their offensive firepower to their dominance in the paint. While Tasmania’s defence has been resilient, their lack of scoring options and injuries make this a tough task. Look for South East Melbourne to bounce back from their loss to Sydney and tighten their grip on a playoff spot, while Tasmania’s postseason hopes hang by a thread.