South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks NBL Round 10 Game Preview

Tip Off at 5:30 PM AEDT | WIN Entertainment Centre

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks Expert Analysis

The Illawarra Hawks travel to Melbourne to face the South East Melbourne Phoenix on Saturday night in a crucial Round 10 clash.

Fresh off a 38-point demolition of the New Zealand Breakers, the Hawks are riding a wave of momentum and looking to secure their fifth away win of the season. Meanwhile, the Phoenix, having had a 15-day break since their loss to Perth, will be desperate to rediscover their defensive identity and return to winning ways under head coach Josh King.

Both teams bring contrasting strengths: Illawarra's high-powered offence and depth go up against the Phoenix’s improved defensive structure. The Hawks won their earlier season matchup 88-82 at John Cain Arena, setting the stage for another tightly contested battle.

Key Matchups

Illawarra’s Offence vs. Phoenix’s Defence

The Hawks boast the league’s top-ranked offence (95.6 PPG), led by a deep rotation that has been unstoppable in transition and off the bench. South East Melbourne, however, has shown defensive grit, holding opponents to an average of 76.4 points in their last seven games prior to going down to Perth before the FIBA break. The battle between Illawarra’s efficiency and Phoenix’s defence will be critical.

Battle of the guards

Sobey and Glover have carried the scoring load for the Phoenix, while Derrick Walton Jr. was injured, however the star import is back to full fitness and poses a threat. They’ll need to outduel Illawarra’s Trey Kell lll and Tyler Harvey, who lead and dictate the Illawarra offence from the back court.

Key Stats

• Offensive Firepower: Illawarra ranks 1st in field goal percentage (48.8%) and turnover efficiency (10.2 per game).

• Defensive Edge: Phoenix holds opponents to 42.3% shooting, 2nd-best in the league.

• Bench Battle: Illawarra averages 52.3 bench points, compared to Phoenix’s 27.4.

• Recent Trends: Phoenix’s last 12 games have all hit the under on the game total, and Illawarra has covered the line in their last four meetings.

Why Illawarra Wins

The Hawks’ depth and offensive versatility give them a clear edge. They’re dominant in transition, outscoring opponents on fast breaks and generating significant contributions from their bench. Their ability to spread the floor and attack from all areas will test the Phoenix’s defence, particularly after a lengthy layoff.

Why South East Melbourne Wins

Phoenix’s defence is their biggest weapon. If they can control the tempo, limit Illawarra’s fast breaks, and force contested shots, they’ll have a chance. Sobey and Glover need big games offensively, while the team must crash the boards to deny Illawarra second-chance points.

Prediction

Illawarra’s momentum and offensive efficiency should be too much for a Phoenix side still searching for consistency. Expect a close contest early, but the Hawks’ depth and ability to execute in transition will likely decide the game in their favour.