South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Cairns Taipans NBL Round 8 Game Preview

Nov 8

2 min read

Tip off is at 2:30 PM AEDT

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Cairns Taipans Analysis

South East Melbourne Phoenix face off against the struggling Cairns Taipans in what promises to be a challenging night for the visitors, especially with uncertainty around key players Taran Armstrong and Tanner Groves returning to the lineup.

The Taipans’ scoring struggles make it tough to back them against a Phoenix squad known for its stifling defence, which ranks second in the league. With Cairns ranking as one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NBL, Phoenix will look to capitalise on this and push for a convincing win at home.

Key Matchups

Phoenix Attack vs. Taipans Interior Defence: South East Melbourne’s guard rotation, featuring Nathan Sobey, Owen Foxwell, and Matt Hurt, will look to exploit the Taipans’ interior defence, which has allowed the second-most points in the paint and the highest second-chance points this season. Expect the Phoenix to test Cairns’ frontcourt and hunt for easy buckets inside.
Derrick Walton Jr. (SEM) vs. Cairns Defence: Walton’s return could add a new dynamic to Phoenix’s offence. The distribution between Walton and Sobey will be a key factor as SEM looks to get its scorers, including Jordan Hunter, back on track.
Cairns’ Youth Development: Injuries have given Cairns’ younger players, like forward Alex Higgins-Titsha, extended minutes, which is key for their development but challenging in games against a structured Phoenix defence.

Key Stats

Phoenix Against the Spread (ATS): SEM holds a 6-4-1 record ATS, the third-best in the NBL this season.
Cairns' Shooting Woes: The Taipans are ranked third-worst in FG% at 42.8%, highlighting their struggles with efficiency, especially against a solid defensive team.
Malique Lewis Rebounding: After being added to the starting lineup, Lewis has averaged 6.25 rebounds over his last four games, up from his season average of 4.6.
Phoenix Trend to the Under: SEM has gone under the total in 10 of 11 games, making them one of the league’s lowest-scoring matchups.

Why South East Melbourne Wins

Phoenix’s defence has been outstanding, allowing just 84 points per game, which positions them as the NBL’s second-best in this metric. This game gives their offensive players a chance to find their rhythm against Cairns’ underperforming defence.

With Sobey and Walton controlling the tempo and Lewis stepping up on the boards, SEM should secure a comfortable win and cover the line, with the game likely to trend under the total.

Why Cairns Wins

If Armstrong and Groves are cleared to play, Cairns could get a much-needed boost in playmaking and size, which would help against a strong Phoenix side. Their best hope lies in capitalising on their young players’ energy and improving their shooting efficiency.

Conclusion

South East Melbourne, backed by a stout defence and a deep roster, should be able to handle a struggling Cairns team that’s underpowered on both ends of the court. With the Phoenix trending heavily to the under this season, expect a slower-paced game with a strong chance for SEM to cover the spread and potentially keep Cairns from reaching their scoring average.