South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers NBL Finals Game Preview

Tip-off is at 2:30 PM AEDT, Sunday, February 16 at John Cain Arena

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers Expert Analysis

South East Melbourne Phoenix will host the Adelaide 36ers at John Cain Arena in a high-stakes NBL Play-In clash, with the winner set to face the Illawarra Hawks in the playoffs. The Phoenix, coming off a tough loss to Perth, will be looking to capitalise on their strong home form, while Adelaide will aim to carry momentum from their thrilling win over Sydney.

Key Matchups

Nathan Sobey vs Dejan VasiljevicSobey’s perimeter shooting has troubled Adelaide in the past, and his 19.8 career points per game against the 36ers highlight his scoring threat. On the other side, Vasiljevic’s hot hand from beyond the arc, as seen in the Play-In win over Sydney, could be a game-changer.

Jordan Hunter vs Montrezl HarrellHunter’s ability to stay out of foul trouble and control the boards will be crucial against Harrell, who is known for his physicality and hustle in the paint.

Bench DepthSouth East Melbourne’s bench, which contributed 46 points against Perth, will need to shine against Adelaide’s shorter rotation, especially with the 36ers relying heavily on their starters.

Key Stats

• Phoenix Home Form: 10 wins from their past 11 home games.

• Adelaide Away Woes: A 4-10 record on the road in NBL25.

• Defensive Standings: Adelaide rank 8th defensively, conceding 96.4 points per game.

• Sobey's Dominance: Averaging 19.8 points per game against Adelaide in his career.

Head-to-Head:

• 2024/25 Season: Phoenix 2-1 Adelaide

• 2023/24 Season: Adelaide 2-1 Phoenix

Offensive & Defensive Rankings:Phoenix are the 3rd highest-scoring team (96.1 PPG), while Adelaide's defence ranks 8th. The 36ers, however, are efficient shooters with a 47.7 FG% (2nd in NBL25).

Why South East Melbourne Wins

The Phoenix thrive at home, where their defensive intensity lifts significantly. Nathan Sobey’s scoring prowess and the bench depth, led by Angus Glover, give them the edge. If Jordan Hunter can contain Harrell and stay on the floor, SEM should dominate the boards and control the tempo.

Why Adelaide Wins

Adelaide's three-point shooting, spearheaded by Vasiljevic, can break open any game. Montrezl Harrell’s inside presence and the playmaking of Kendric Davis provide a balanced attack. If the 36ers find their rhythm early and exploit Phoenix's defensive lapses, they can steal a win on the road.

Conclusion

This Play-In matchup promises to be a battle of contrasting strengths: Phoenix’s home-court defence versus Adelaide’s offensive efficiency. While SEM holds the advantage at home, Adelaide’s trio of Vasiljevic, Harrell, and Davis could pose serious problems. Expect a close contest with Phoenix narrowly edging out the 36ers for a shot at Illawarra.