RAC Arena | 9:30 AEDT, Friday, November 15
The South East Melbourne Phoenix look poised to keep their impressive resurgence going as they head to Perth to face the Wildcats.
Since an 0-5 start, the Phoenix have shifted gears under head coach Josh King, who has crafted a defensive-minded game plan that’s proving effective, with the team now allowing just 76.4 points per game over their last seven. They’ll aim to test a Wildcats squad missing Bryce Cotton and leaning on young stars to bridge the gap and score points from the perimeter.
The Phoenix have been difficult to shoot against and they will look to frustrate young guards Elijah Pepper and Ben Henshall and damage their confidence early. Perth will need to get their bigs involved with Kristian Doolittle the focus, feeding the ball in to the likes of Keanu Pinder and Izan Almanza to break down the solid defensive structure of the Phoenix.
South East Melbourne’s Defence vs. Perth’s Offence: South East Melbourne’s defensive transformation has seen them rank second in opponent field goal percentage (41.8%), and they’ll work to keep Perth’s young shooters off-balance. With Perth currently struggling to connect on shots (42.5% FG, ranked 9th), the Phoenix defence has a clear edge.
Battle on the Boards: Perth’s strength in rebounding (first in the league at 44.1 RPG) will put South East Melbourne to the test, who rank 8th in the NBL in opposition boards. This battle for second-chance points will be a deciding factor, especially with missed shots likely in this defensive duel.
Phoenix on a Roll: South East Melbourne have won 5 of their past 7 games, averaging 76.4 points allowed per game during this stretch.
Rebounding Efficiency: Perth are the best rebounding team in the NBL averaging 44.1 RPG while S.E.M ranks 8th with 43.2 Opposition rebounds per game.
Recent History: South East Melbourne took down Perth in a dominant 100-76 win earlier this season, and they also claimed the 2023/24 season series, 2-1.
With a disciplined defence and recent confidence on offense, South East Melbourne is well-positioned to test Perth’s youthful lineup. The Phoenix’s ability to stymie shooters gives them an advantage, especially against a Wildcats team without Cotton’s firepower. If Nathan Sobey and Angus Glover can replicate their recent form, South East Melbourne has a strong chance to pull off a win.
Perth’s home-court advantage and rebounding dominance could tilt the game in their favor if their young guards can break through South East Melbourne’s defence. Kristian Doolittle’s all-around contributions (14.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game) and Keanu Pinder and Izan Almansa’s presence inside give Perth the tools to grind out points. For Perth to win, they’ll need to capitalize on any defensive lapses from the Phoenix and work the ball inside and get some aggression from their bigs.
South East Melbourne’s newfound defensive grit, combined with Perth’s scoring inconsistencies, points toward a close, low-scoring battle. With strong rebounding and defensive metrics, the Phoenix should be able to control the game’s tempo and frustrate Perth’s offense. Expect South East Melbourne to push Perth to the limit, and they’re well-positioned to pull off the win in what should be a physical, grind-it-out matchup.
