Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL Finals Game Preview

Feb 10

2 min read

Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Expert Analysis

The Perth Wildcats and South East Melbourne Phoenix face off in a high-stakes Seeding Qualifier, with the winner advancing to a semi-final showdown against Melbourne United.

While this matchup isn’t being played at RAC Arena, Perth still holds the home-court advantage, which could prove crucial. Expect an offensive spectacle, with both teams prioritising scoring over defence in what promises to be a high-scoring affair.

Key Matchups

Bryce Cotton vs South East Melbourne Defence

There isn’t a more in-form player in the NBL right now than Bryce Cotton. The MVP favourite has been on a scoring tear, averaging 36.5 points over his last four games, including a stunning 49-point explosion to close out the regular season. South East Melbourne has struggled to contain him, allowing 29 and 33 points in their two matchups this season. With no clear defensive stopper for Cotton, the Phoenix will need a team effort to slow him down.

Matt Hurt & Nathan Sobey vs Perth Interior Defence

While Cotton dominates the headlines, the Phoenix have their own offensive weapons in Matt Hurt and Nathan Sobey. South East Melbourne has been elite offensively, averaging 104 points per game over their past 15 contests. With Perth ranking ninth in opposition field goal percentage (47.9%), Hurt and Sobey will look to exploit the Wildcats' porous defence in the paint and from the perimeter.

Key Stats

Perth has won 5 of the past 6 matches against South East Melbourne.
Perth holds a 14-6 record as favourites this season.
South East Melbourne has conceded an average of 101.2 points per game in their last five away games.
Perth has allowed 106 points per game in their past five home matches.
The Phoenix have scored 100+ points in 13 of their last 15 games.

Why Perth Wins

The Wildcats have all the momentum heading into this contest. They finished the season with three straight wins over playoff-bound teams and have one of the most dominant offensive weapons in league history in Bryce Cotton. His ability to take over a game, combined with South East Melbourne’s defensive struggles on the road, sets up Perth to outgun the Phoenix. While their defence is a concern, their offensive firepower should be enough to secure the win in a high-scoring battle.

Why South East Melbourne Wins

If the Phoenix can turn this into a shootout, they have every chance of coming away with the win. They have one of the most potent offences in the league, consistently scoring over 100 points. If Matt Hurt and Nathan Sobey can take advantage of Perth’s defensive shortcomings, and the team gets solid contributions from Joe Wieskamp, they can overwhelm the Wildcats with sheer scoring volume. Additionally, if they find a way to limit Cotton even slightly, their chances increase significantly.

Conclusion

This game has all the makings of a classic NBL shootout, with defence likely taking a back seat to high-paced, offensive basketball. While South East Melbourne has the weapons to challenge, Bryce Cotton’s form and Perth’s home advantage should prove too much to overcome. Expect a fast, entertaining contest, but one where the Wildcats book their spot in the semi-finals with another Bryce Cotton masterclass.