New Zealand Breakers vs Tasmania JackJumpers NBL Round 17 Game Preview

Jan 15

2 min read

Tip-off is at 5:30pm AEDT on Thursday 16th January at Spark Arena

New Zealand Breakers vs Tasmania JackJumpers Expert Analysis

The New Zealand Breakers host the Tasmania JackJumpers on Thursday, looking to snap a four-game losing streak and avoid a 4-0 sweep in their season series.

With Parker Jackson-Cartwright (PJC) back from suspension, the Breakers have their star guard returning at a critical moment. For Tasmania, a depleted frontcourt and recent struggles may leave them vulnerable, despite being the league’s best defensive team.

The Breakers will lean on PJC’s dynamic playmaking and the towering presence of Tacko Fall to exploit the JackJumpers' weaknesses in the paint. Conversely, Tasmania’s challenge will be finding offensive consistency without several key players while maintaining their trademark defensive intensity.

Key Matchups

Parker Jackson-Cartwright vs. Tasmania’s Backcourt

PJC is a game-changer, ranking 6th in scoring, 3rd in assists, and 1st in steals league-wide. His ability to break down defences will test Tasmania’s guards, especially in pick-and-roll situations with Tacko Fall.

Tacko Fall vs. Tasmania’s Undermanned Frontcourt

With Majok Deng and Will Magnay sidelined, the JackJumpers lack size to counter Fall, who scored 11 and 16 points in their previous matchups. Expect the Breakers to exploit this mismatch repeatedly.

Breakers’ Perimeter Defence vs. Tasmania’s Shooters

While Tasmania excels defensively on the perimeter, they’ve struggled offensively, shooting just 34% from the field and 26% from three in their last game. The Breakers need to limit open looks to keep Tasmania’s offence sputtering.

Key Stats

Head-to-Head: Tasmania leads the season series 3-0, with the most recent win a dominant 97-82 performance.
Paint Battle: Tasmania allows 42.2 points in the paint per game, 4th most in the NBL, which plays into New Zealand’s strengths with Tacko Fall.
PJC’s Playmaking: Jackson-Cartwright averages 6.3 assists per game against Tasmania this season.
Tasmania’s Road Struggles: The JackJumpers are 4-7 on the road this season.

Why New Zealand Breakers Will Win

With Parker Jackson-Cartwright returning, the Breakers regain their best player and a legitimate MVP candidate. His scoring and playmaking will rejuvenate their offence, which has averaged 91.2 points over their last five games. Tacko Fall’s presence in the paint will be a nightmare for Tasmania’s injury-hit frontcourt, giving New Zealand a significant edge in rebounds and interior scoring.

Why Tasmania JackJumpers Will Win

Tasmania remains the NBL’s best defensive team, allowing just 86.3 points per game and holding opponents to a league-low 30.7% from three. Even with a depleted lineup, their structured defence and disciplined approach can frustrate a Breakers side that ranks last in three-point shooting (31.8%). If they can hit timely shots and force turnovers, the JackJumpers have a chance to grind out a win.

Conclusion

The Breakers are primed to bounce back with PJC back in the lineup and Tasmania’s injuries leaving them undermanned. Expect New Zealand to dominate in the paint and lean on their star guard’s playmaking to secure the win. Tasmania’s elite defence will keep things competitive, but their offensive struggles and lack of depth could prove too much to overcome.