New Zealand Breakers vs Tasmania JackJumpers NBL Round 12 Game Preview

Tip-off is at 5:30pm AEDT on Thursday 12th December at Eventfinda Stadium

New Zealand Breakers vs Tasmania JackJumpers Expert Analysis

The New Zealand Breakers return to the court in Round 12 seeking redemption after a four-game losing streak.

Their latest defeats came at home against Melbourne United and the Sydney Kings, two powerhouses that exposed the Breakers' lack of offensive consistency. Despite these struggles, New Zealand remains a defensively reliable team and will look to leverage their efficiency in a low-scoring battle against the Tasmania JackJumpers.

The JackJumpers, riding a four-game win streak, arrive in New Zealand with newfound confidence. However, questions linger about the strength of their recent opposition, as their victories came against teams in slumps, including Brisbane and Adelaide. With a dismal road record of 2-6, Tasmania faces an uphill battle against a Breakers squad that thrives at home.

This matchup is expected to showcase defensive prowess over offensive fireworks. Both teams rank among the NBL's lowest-scoring offenses, with New Zealand at 8th (84.9 PPG) and Tasmania at 10th (80.1 PPG). On the defensive side, Tasmania boasts the league's best scoring defense (83.2 PPG), while New Zealand is a respectable fifth (89.4 PPG).

The Breakers’ ability to control the tempo will be pivotal. Despite their scoring woes, they rank 4th in field goal percentage (46.1%) but struggle to convert that efficiency into high scores. Tasmania, meanwhile, thrives on creating turnovers and disrupting rhythm, led by Milton Doyle’s 1.5 steals per game.

Key Matchups

• Breakers’ Efficiency vs. JackJumpers’ Defense

  The Breakers rank 4th in field goal percentage (46.1%) but are up against the league’s top defense, with Tasmania allowing just 83.2 points per game.

• Milton Doyle (Tasmania) vs. Breakers’ Guards

  Doyle, averaging 1.5 steals per game, will look to disrupt New Zealand’s backcourt, which has struggled with turnovers (8th in the league).

• Rebounding Battle

  New Zealand leads the league in defensive rebounds (37.1 per game), but Tasmania’s 7th-ranked rebounding unit will aim to crash the boards to generate second-chance opportunities.

Key Stats

• Low-Scoring Teams: New Zealand ranks 8th in scoring (84.9 PPG), while Tasmania is 10th (80.1 PPG).

• Defensive Efficiency: Tasmania leads the league in scoring defense, allowing just 83.2 points per game.

• Close Games: Eleven of New Zealand’s 14 games this season have been decided by 10 points or fewer.

• Road Struggles: Tasmania is 2-6 on the road this season.

Why New Zealand Wins

The Breakers’ home-court advantage, playing their third consecutive game in New Zealand, gives them a platform to find their rhythm. Despite recent scoring struggles, they rank 4th in field goal percentage (46.1%), an asset against Tasmania’s strong defense. Their own defense, allowing 89.4 points per game, could be crucial in a low-scoring battle, giving them a strong chance to break their losing streak.

Why Tasmania Wins

Tasmania’s elite defense, allowing just 83.2 points per game and ranking 2nd in forced turnovers (13.1 per game), has driven their four-game win streak. Milton Doyle’s defensive impact and ability to create plays will be key in disrupting New Zealand’s flow. If the JackJumpers stay consistent defensively and limit the Breakers’ shooting efficiency, they can secure another tough victory.

Conclusion

This matchup is a classic clash of defensive-minded teams. New Zealand’s home-court advantage and shooting efficiency could give them the edge, but Tasmania’s ability to disrupt with turnovers and clamp down defensively makes them a tough opponent. Expect a tightly contested, low-scoring game where the Breakers’ desperation to snap their losing streak edges them ahead.