New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks NBL Game Preview

Feb 4

2 min read

New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks Expert Analysis

The New Zealand Breakers will wrap up their tumultuous NBL25 season with a home clash against the top-seeded Illawarra Hawks at Spark Arena.

While the Breakers are out of playoff contention, the Hawks are gunning for the minor premiership and will look to extend their three-game winning streak over New Zealand. Despite Illawarra’s offensive dominance, the Breakers have been tough at home, setting the stage for a competitive showdown.

Key Matchups

Matt Mooney vs. Tyler Harvey: Mooney has stepped up in Parker Jackson-Cartwright’s absence, but will face a tough challenge against Harvey, who leads the Hawks' potent offence.
Sam Mennenga vs. Sam Froling: Mennenga will need to be strong in the paint against Froling, who anchors Illawarra’s rebounding dominance.

Key Stats

Illawarra have won 3 straight games against New Zealand.
The Breakers are 5-2 at Spark Arena this season, with both losses by 10 points or less.
Illawarra average 100 points per game against the NBL’s top 4 defensive teams.
New Zealand rank 3rd in defence, allowing 91.2 points per game, but sit 9th in scoring with 85.8 points per game.

Why New Zealand Wins

The Breakers will rely on their defensive prowess and home-court advantage to keep things tight. They’ve limited opponents to the lowest rebounds per game in the league and have a solid 5-2 record at Spark Arena. If Mooney, Mennenga, and King can find their offensive rhythm, and the team maintains defensive intensity, they could pull off an upset in front of their home fans.

Why Illawarra Wins

The Hawks have been the league’s best offensive team, averaging 101.9 points per game with a league-high 49% shooting from the field. Their depth and high-energy style, combined with dominance on the boards (43.9 RPG), give them the tools to overpower New Zealand. One win secures the minor premiership, and they’ll be motivated to clinch it in Auckland.

Conclusion

While the Breakers will fight hard for a home win to close out their season, Illawarra’s offensive firepower and balanced roster should see them through. Expect a competitive game, but the Hawks' hunger for the minor premiership and their scoring efficiency make them favourites to take this one. However, with New Zealand's strong home form, they could cover the line in a tighter contest than expected.