Melbourne United vs. Tasmania JackJumpers - NBL25 Round 13 Game Preview

Dec 21, 2024

2 min read

Tip-Off: /:30 AEDT, Sunday, December 23 | John Cain Arena

Melbourne United vs. Tasmania JackJumpers Expert Analysis

Lady luck has shined on Melbourne United while taking a bit of turd on the JackJumpers.

Melbourne United will look to snap a rare three-game losing streak against the reigning champions, Tasmania JackJumpers, who enter this matchup shorthanded following the loss of star big man Will Magnay. This crucial clash in the NBL25 season is set to provide high-intensity action, with Melbourne poised to capitalize on the JackJumpers’ weakened frontcourt in the likely return of Chris Goulding.

Key Matchups

Jack White vs. Tasmania’s Interior Defence

Jack White has been a force against Tasmania this season, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game against the Jackies. With Magnay sidelined, White is expected to thrive in the paint, securing second-chance points and dominating the boards.

Chris Goulding vs. Tasmania’s Perimeter Defence

Goulding’s potential return adds a critical three-point threat for Melbourne. Tasmania boasts the league’s best perimeter defence (31.3% O3P%), but Goulding’s recent hot hand—23 three-pointers in his last four games—makes him a game-changer.

Team Form and Momentum

Melbourne United: Struggling defensively, Melbourne has allowed over 100 points in their last three losses. Despite their defensive woes, United’s offense remains a strength, ranking 3rd in scoring (96.6 PPG) and 2nd in three-point percentage (37.7%).
Tasmania JackJumpers: Riding a five-game winning streak, Tasmania has relied heavily on their league-best defence (82.8 OPPG). However, without Magnay anchoring the paint, their interior presence and rim protection take a significant hit.

Key Stats

Melbourne Offence vs. Tasmania Defence: Melbourne ranks 3rd in FG% (46.6%), while Tasmania is 3rd in OFG% (44.0%).
Rebounding Battle: Both teams are evenly matched in rebounding, with Melbourne (41.2 RPG) and Tasmania (41 RPG) ranked 5th and 6th, respectively. Magnay’s absence tilts this battle in Melbourne’s favour.
Turnover Rates: Both teams excel in taking care of the ball, ranking 3rd and 2nd in turnover rate, respectively.

Why Melbourne Wins

Melbourne’s offence, led by Jack White and a possible return from Chris Goulding, should exploit Tasmania’s weakened frontcourt. Their ability to shoot efficiently from deep and control the boards gives them a decisive edge, especially with Tasmania’s defensive adjustments likely to be a work in progress.

Why Tasmania Wins

If the JackJumpers can slow the tempo and lean into their defensive identity, they might frustrate Melbourne’s rhythm. Fabian Krslovic and Gorjak Gak will need to step up inside, while Ian Hummer’s debut could provide an unexpected spark.

Prediction

The loss of Will Magnay significantly weakens Tasmania’s chances, especially against a Melbourne side desperate to end their losing skid. Expect Melbourne to control the boards, dominate the paint, and leverage their three-point shooting to secure a much-needed win.