Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks NBL Finals Game Preview

Mar 10

3 min read

Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Wednesday, March 12th at John Cain Arena

Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Expert Analysis

Melbourne United will look to take a 2-0 series lead when they return home to John Cain Arena on Wednesday night.

United came away with a gritty 96-88 win in Game 1, overcoming a 10-point halftime deficit with a second-half defensive masterclass. History is firmly in their favour, with eight of the past ten NBL Finals winners claiming victory in Game 1.

Game 2 is expected to be more free-flowing, with the Hawks looking to improve their offensive execution. Melbourne’s Chris Goulding, who was slowed by early foul trouble in Game 1, will be eager to make his mark after torching Perth in the semi-finals. Expect a high-scoring affair, with Goulding primed for a 20+ point outing on his home floor.

Key Matchups

Chris Goulding vs. Tyler Harvey

Goulding was kept quiet early in Game 1 but still managed to impact the result when it mattered most. Harvey, on the other hand, struggled with efficiency, going 7/21 from the field. If the Hawks are to level the series, Harvey needs to rediscover his shooting touch and match Goulding’s offensive firepower.

Marcus Lee vs. Sam Froling

Lee dominated the glass in Game 1 with 15 rebounds and 14 points, giving United a significant advantage in second-chance opportunities. Froling started strong but faded in the second half, scoring just two points after the main break. His ability to contain Lee and assert himself in the paint will be crucial for the Hawks.

Matthew Dellavedova vs. Trey Kell III

Dellavedova led Melbourne with 18 points in Game 1, using his experience and composure to control the tempo. Kell, meanwhile, had a tough night, managing just six points on 3/11 shooting. He’ll need to bounce back in Game 2 to give the Hawks another scoring option.

Key Stats

United have won their last four games at John Cain Arena.
Melbourne have won five of their last six against Illawarra at home.
Eight of Melbourne’s last ten home games have gone over 192.5 total points.
Chris Goulding averaged 35.5 points at John Cain Arena in the semi-finals against Perth.

Why Melbourne United Wins

Melbourne’s defensive effort in the second half of Game 1 proved they can lock down the Hawks when needed. Their dominance on the boards and second-chance points were game-changing, and with Goulding likely to have a bigger impact in Game 2, they have the tools to dictate terms at home. If United can replicate their defensive intensity and crash the glass again, they’ll put themselves in the driver’s seat for the championship.

Why Illawarra Wins

The Hawks showed in the first half of Game 1 that they can break down Melbourne’s defence, leading by ten at halftime. If they can maintain that level of execution for four quarters and get improved shooting performances from Harvey and Kell, they’ll give themselves a strong chance. Winning the battle on the boards and limiting Melbourne’s second-chance points will be key to turning the tide.

Conclusion

Game 2 is shaping up as a pivotal clash, with Melbourne aiming to take a commanding 2-0 lead and Illawarra desperate to level the series. The Hawks will need to find answers offensively while tightening up their defence, particularly in the second half. However, with home-court advantage and a deep, experienced squad, Melbourne United remain in the box seat to put one hand on the championship trophy.