Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL Finals Game Preview

Feb 27

2 min read

Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Friday, February 28 at WIN Entertainment Centre

Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Expert Analysis

The Illawarra Hawks head into their Semi-Final matchup against South East Melbourne Phoenix with strong momentum, looking to take a 1-0 lead in the series.

Despite the Phoenix winning the regular-season series 2-1, their defensive inconsistencies have been a concern, particularly in their play-in games. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been the standout team of the competition, securing the minor premiership and finishing the season as the league’s top-scoring side.

Key Matchups

Tyler Harvey vs Nathan Sobey: Harvey has consistently torched the Phoenix, scoring 20+ points in six of his last seven home games against them. Sobey will need to match his offensive output while also being a defensive presence to limit Harvey’s impact.
Darius Days vs Matt Hurt: Days' return from injury gives the Hawks an inside-out scoring threat, while Hurt has been a key contributor for SEM with his ability to stretch the floor and knock down big shots.
Bench Production: Illawarra leads the league in bench points, while South East Melbourne will need contributions from players like Agnus Glover and Ben Ayre to match their depth.

Key Stats

Illawarra Home Dominance: 5 wins in their last 6 first quarters, winning outright in all five.
South East Melbourne's Road Struggles: 3-7 in their last 10 road games, conceding an average of 102 points per game.
Underdog Record: SEM are 7-12 this season as underdogs.
Tyler Harvey Factor: Has scored 20+ points in 6 of the last 7 games against SEM at home.

Head-to-Head:

2024/25 Season: SEM 2-1 Illawarra
2023/24 Season: Illawarra 3-0 SEM

Offensive & Defensive Rankings:Illawarra ranks 1st in scoring (101.4 PPG) and field goal percentage (48.6%), while SEM’s defence sits 6th. The Phoenix, however, rank 3rd in scoring (96.1 PPG) and have improved offensively in recent games.

Why Illawarra Wins

The Hawks have been the most dominant offensive team in the NBL this season, leading in key metrics such as points in the paint, field goal percentage, and efficiency stats. Their ability to score in multiple ways makes them a tough matchup, and they also hold a strong defensive presence despite their offensive focus. If they start strong, they can control the game and take the first win of the series.

Why South East Melbourne Wins

The Phoenix have shown resilience this season, overcoming an 0-5 start and significant roster turnover to reach the semi-finals. If they can replicate their second-half performance against Adelaide, they have the scoring firepower to challenge Illawarra. The key will be tightening their defence and preventing an early Hawks onslaught.

Conclusion

Illawarra enters this contest as the favourites, but South East Melbourne has proven they can fight back when their season is on the line. The Hawks' offensive firepower and home-court advantage give them the upper hand, but if the Phoenix can disrupt their rhythm, an upset isn't out of the question. Expect a high-scoring clash with Illawarra likely drawing first blood in the series.