Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL Finals Game Preview

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Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Expert Analysis

The Illawarra Hawks and South East Melbourne Phoenix face off in a decisive Game 3, with a spot in the NBL Championship Series at stake.

Illawarra will be looking to bounce back from a tough Game 2 loss, where their star guards struggled mightily from the field. Meanwhile, South East Melbourne capitalised on the Hawks’ poor shooting night to level the series.

Illawarra has been dominant at home all season, and with Tyler Harvey and Trey Kell III due for a bounce-back game, they’ll be confident in reclaiming control. South East Melbourne, on the other hand, will need another big performance from Matt Hurt and their role players to pull off an upset on the road.

Key Matchups

Tyler Harvey vs. Nathan Sobey – Harvey is coming off his worst shooting night of the season but has been in career-best form. Can Sobey slow him down again?
Trey Kell III vs. Matt Hurt – Kell struggled in Game 2 but has been a force at home, averaging 20 PPG at WIN Entertainment Centre. Hurt will need to keep up his scoring from Game 2.
Illawarra Bench vs. South East Melbourne Bench – Illawarra’s reserves have been outstanding, scoring 91 points across the first two games. Can SEM’s role players step up to match them?

Key Stats

Illawarra’s home dominance – Their average win margin at home is 19.8 points.
Scoring at WIN Entertainment Centre – The Hawks average 104.3 PPG at home this season.
South East Melbourne’s road struggles – They’ve allowed 100+ points in 8 of their last 9 away games and lost their last four on the road.
Trey Kell’s home form – Averaging 20 PPG at home and has scored 23+ in 3 of his last 4 games there.

Why Illawarra Hawks Win

The Hawks have been a dominant force at home all season, and their Game 2 shooting woes are unlikely to repeat. With Harvey and Kell both capable of catching fire, Illawarra should have no trouble putting points on the board. Their bench has also been a major strength, providing depth and energy. If they control the tempo and limit turnovers, the Hawks should cruise to victory.

Why South East Melbourne Phoenix Win

South East Melbourne showed in Game 2 that they can take advantage of mistakes, forcing 13 turnovers and capitalising on extra possessions. If they can replicate that defensive intensity and Matt Hurt continues his hot form, they have a chance. Nathan Sobey and Angus Glover will also need to step up to keep pace with Illawarra’s scoring punch.

Conclusion

This game sets up as a massive test for both teams. Illawarra has been dominant at home and will be eager to make up for their poor shooting in Game 2. Meanwhile, South East Melbourne will need another huge performance from their key scorers to overcome their road struggles. If Harvey and Kell find their rhythm, the Hawks should be too strong in front of their home crowd.