Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL Round 16 Game Preview
Tip-Off: 5:30pm, 11th of January | WIN Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers Expert Analysis
The Illawarra Hawks are set to host the New Zealand Breakers in Round 16 of the NBL25 season at WIN Entertainment Centre.
The Hawks come into this matchup as heavy favourites and will look to continue their dominance over the struggling Breakers.
Illawarra’s offence, ranked first in the league, will test the Breakers’ middling defence, while Darius Days looks primed for a standout performance. For the Breakers, the absence of Parker Jackson-Cartwright has severely hampered their offensive capabilities, and they’ll need a near-flawless effort to keep this contest competitive.
Key Matchups
Darius Days vs. Breakers’ Defence
Darius Days is trending upwards, averaging more shots and scoring consistently over the past three games. Against New Zealand’s 7th-ranked defence, Days is expected to find plenty of opportunities to hit his 15+ point mark.
Illawarra’s Offence vs. New Zealand’s Turnovers
The Hawks’ efficient offence, with a league-low 10.3 turnovers per game, faces a Breakers team plagued by turnovers (13.1 per game). Expect Illawarra to capitalize on these extra possessions.
Perimeter Battle
New Zealand’s league-worst three-point shooting percentage (31.1%) will struggle against Illawarra’s stingy perimeter defence, which ranks third in the league.
Key Stats
Illawarra’s Offence: Ranks 1st in points per game (101.0), rebounds per game (43.9), and field goal percentage (48.7%).
New Zealand’s Scoring Woes: Averaging just 84.6 points per game (8th in the league) and a league-worst 31.1% from three-point range.
Head-to-Head:Â Illawarra defeated New Zealand by a whopping 109-71 margin in their only prior meeting this season.
Darius Days’ Form: Averaging over 10 shots per game in his last three outings, scoring 12, 15, and 13 points.
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
The Hawks snapped a two-game losing streak with a gritty 89-84 win over the Tasmania JackJumpers. Despite a third-quarter lapse, Illawarra showed resilience in crunch time, reinforcing their position atop the standings with a 14-7 record.
Trey Kell continues to anchor the team, averaging 18.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game on 43.9% shooting. His consistent performance keeps the Hawks’ offence humming, alongside strong contributions from Darius Days and the supporting cast.
Illawarra’s dominance in offensive metrics (points, rebounds, and shooting percentage) makes them the most potent team in the league.
New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News
The Breakers are reeling after a 74-point showing in a nine-point loss to Brisbane. Without Parker Jackson-Cartwright, New Zealand has struggled to generate offence. While Tacko Fall and Matt Mooney have stepped up in moments, the lack of consistent scoring options remains a glaring issue.
Turnovers continue to haunt the Breakers, and their inability to hit from deep (10th in three-point percentage) limits their ability to mount comebacks. The Breakers will need significant defensive improvement to keep Illawarra within reach.
Why Illawarra Will Win
Illawarra’s balanced attack and superior defence give them a decisive edge. With Trey Kell in MVP-calibre form and Darius Days poised to exploit the Breakers’ defensive lapses, the Hawks should comfortably cover the line.
Why New Zealand Will Win
To pull off an upset, the Breakers must minimize turnovers, lock down Illawarra’s perimeter shooters, and get strong performances from Tacko Fall and Matt Mooney. A gritty defensive effort could disrupt the Hawks’ rhythm.
Conclusion
The Illawarra Hawks are well-positioned to secure a comfortable victory against the struggling New Zealand Breakers. Darius Days’ recent form and the Hawks’ overall offensive efficiency make them clear favourites.
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