Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL Round 10 Game Preview

Tip off is at 7:30 pm AEDT on Thursday 28th November

Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers Expert Analysis

The top-ranked scoring team meets the league's best defensive unit in a high-stakes clash to kick off Round 10. The Illawarra Hawks, who thrive on fast-paced offense and sharpshooting, host the New Zealand Breakers, masters of grinding games down to a defensive standstill. With contrasting styles and key form lines on the table, this matchup promises fireworks.

Key Matchups

• Tyler Harvey vs. New Zealand Perimeter Defense

  Harvey’s ability to shoot over New Zealand’s backcourt will be critical. With the Breakers conceding 34.9% from deep, a hot shooting night from Harvey could tilt the game in Illawarra’s favor.

• Illawarra’s Bench vs. New Zealand’s Depth

  Illawarra’s bench averages 29.2 PPG, providing vital scoring support. The Breakers, however, lack similar contributions, relying heavily on their starters to produce offensively.

• Rebounding Battle

  New Zealand’s top-ranked rebounding unit will test Illawarra, who rank 8th on the boards. Limiting second-chance points could decide the game.

Key Stats

• Illawarra’s Losses: All four losses this season have come when their opponent scores 92+ points.

• New Zealand’s Scoring Woes: The Breakers have scored under 88 points in 5 of 10 games, including three games below 73.

• 3-Point Shooting: Illawarra ranks 4th in 3P% (36.6%), while New Zealand allows the 5th-highest opponent 3P% (34.9%).

• Tyler Harvey vs. NZB: Harvey averages a career-high 20.7 PPG against the Breakers, the most against any opponent.

  
  

Why Illawarra Can Win

Illawarra has proven they can overcome elite defensive teams, boasting a perfect 4-0 record against top-five defensive units this season. Their potent offense, averaging 95.6 points per game, is led by Tyler Harvey, who has historically thrived against the Breakers with a career-best 20.7 PPG.

The Hawks’ offensive efficiency is backed by the league’s best field-goal percentage (48.8%) and lowest turnover rate (10.2 per game). Facing New Zealand's top-ranked interior defense, Illawarra is likely to lean heavily on their perimeter shooting, where they rank 4th in the league at 36.6%.

Additionally, the Hawks’ ability to exploit New Zealand’s 5th-worst opponent 3-point defense gives them a clear pathway to victory.

Why New Zealand Can Win

The Breakers have built their season on suffocating defence, holding opponents to a league-best 82.5 points per game. Their physicality and disciplined rotations force opponents into tough, contested shots, while their rebounding dominance (36.4 RPG) limits second-chance opportunities.

Offensively, while inconsistent, New Zealand is efficient. They boast the 2nd-best field-goal percentage (47.1%) but take the fewest shots per game. The Breakers’ deliberate style slows the tempo, neutralizing fast-paced teams like Illawarra.

New Zealand’s recent form—four wins in their last five games—suggests they are capable of grinding out wins, even on tough road trips.

Conclusion

The Breakers’ defense will challenge Illawarra, but the Hawks have shown they can adapt to elite defensive schemes. If Harvey finds his range early and the Hawks leverage their perimeter shooting, they could take control. Conversely, New Zealand must slow the tempo and force Illawarra into turnovers to stay competitive.