Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Championship Series Game 1 Preview

Mar 7

2 min read

Tip-off is at 8:00 PM AEDT, Saturday, March 8 at WIN Entertainment Centre

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Championship Series Expert Analysis

The NBL25 Grand Final tips off with a thrilling matchup between the Illawarra Hawks and Melbourne United. Illawarra has built its season on fast-paced, high-scoring basketball, while Melbourne has relied on defensive structure and clutch performances. Game 1 promises to be a battle of contrasting styles, with the Hawks looking to set the tone early and United aiming to slow things down.

Key Matchups

Sam Froling vs. Melbourne’s Interior Defence

Froling has been a force inside, averaging 16.6 points per game against Melbourne this season. United has struggled to contain him in the paint, conceding an average of 53 points in the key to Illawarra across their matchups.

Chris Goulding vs. Hawks’ Perimeter Defence

Goulding was instrumental in Melbourne’s semi-final win, draining 22 three-pointers across the series against Perth. Illawarra will need to limit his off-ball movement and contest his shots effectively.

Pace Battle

Illawarra thrives on high tempo and shot volume, while Melbourne prefers a controlled pace. The team that dictates the tempo could gain a crucial advantage.

Key Stats

Illawarra leads the league in scoring (101.4 PPG) and field goal attempts (77.2 per game).
Melbourne allowed 37 first-quarter points to Perth in their Game 3 semi-final, highlighting their vulnerability to fast starts.
The Hawks have won all first quarters against United this season and 8 of their last 10 overall.
Melbourne’s defence ranks 4th in opposition PPG (91.4) but has struggled in the paint against Illawarra.

Why Illawarra Wins

The Hawks will come out firing, aiming to build an early lead as they have done all season. Their scoring depth, led by multiple top-20 scorers, ensures they can spread the floor and attack from all angles. With United struggling in the paint and early in games, Illawarra can capitalize on these weaknesses and set the tone from the jump.

Why Melbourne Wins

Melbourne has the experience and composure to grind out a win, as seen in their clutch performances against Perth. If they can slow down Illawarra’s pace, limit turnovers, and execute defensively, they can frustrate the Hawks and keep the game within reach for a late push. Goulding’s shooting could be the X-factor, especially if he finds his rhythm from deep.

Conclusion

Game 1 sets the stage for an exciting Championship Series, with Illawarra looking to run and Melbourne aiming to control the tempo. If the Hawks get off to a fast start, they’ll be hard to chase down. However, if United can keep it close and make it a battle of execution down the stretch, they’ll give themselves a chance. Expect an intense, physical contest to kick off the NBL25 Grand Final.