Sydney Kings vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL Game Preview

Sydney Kings vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis

South East Melbourne Phoenix will look to continue their recent resurgence and assert their new defensive identity against the Sydney Kings on Friday night. Since the departure of former head coach Mike Kelly, the Phoenix have transformed under interim coach Sam McKinnon and now head coach Josh King, who has emphasised effort and unity. This renewed approach has resulted in a tougher, defence-oriented squad that’s hard to score against, a significant shift from the team’s previous offensive-first reputation. They will aim steal a victory as the underdog and potentially grab their third consecutive win against a Sydney side still working through its own struggles with consistency and chemistry.

Sydney, loaded with talent but yet to gel as a cohesive unit, enters this matchup having broken a three-game losing streak with a strong defensive win over the Tasmania JackJumpers. However, questions linger over their chemistry and consistency, making them a team that South East Melbourne may be able to capitalise on if they can continue to play to their defensive strengths.

Key Matchups

Matt Hurt (SEM) vs. Sydney’s Defence: Hurt has been pivotal for the Phoenix, averaging a league-high 20.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. His ability to score from multiple spots and fight for boards will be crucial in breaking down Sydney’s defence, especially with the Kings focusing on high-percentage plays inside.

Nathan Sobey (SEM) vs. Sydney Guards: Sobey has stepped up since Kelly's departure, averaging 15.2 points over the last five games. His ability to penetrate and disrupt the Sydney backcourt will be key if the Phoenix are to keep pace with the Kings' offense.

Sydney's Rotations vs. Phoenix Defence: Sydney's recent reduction in three-point attempts indicates an attempt to improve shot selection, focusing on scoring inside. This could play into the hands of SEM, whose new defensive system has kept opponents to just 77.4 points on average over the last five games.

Key Stats

Recent Match Totals: Nine of the last 10 games between Sydney and South East Melbourne have hit the under, signalling that this could be a low-scoring, defensively focused affair.

Phoenix Defence: In their last five games, the Phoenix have held opponents to just 77.4 points per game, including three games under 77 points, demonstrating their improved defensive commitment.

Sydney’s Opponent Rebounds: The Kings rank eighth in allowing opponents an average of 43.2 rebounds per game, which could open second-chance opportunities for the Phoenix.

Matt Hurt’s Performance: Hurt has exceeded 25 combined points, rebounds, and assists in nine of 10 games this season, showing his consistency and impact across multiple facets of the game.

Why South East Melbourne Wins

The Phoenix have transformed into one of the toughest teams to score against in recent weeks, driven by an emphasis on defensive intensity under coach Josh King. Their shift towards defensive discipline and increased team unity has turned around their season and should provide an advantage against a Sydney team that still appears to be finding its rhythm. With Hurt and Sobey leading the charge, SEM can restrict Sydney’s scoring options, keeping the game within reach and possibly find their clutch moment to snatch victory.

Why Sydney Wins

Sydney’s deep talent pool gives them the potential to dominate any game, and they’ll be looking to build on the momentum from their 88-60 win over Tasmania. If their offence can find its groove, particularly from inside the arc where they’ve been instructed to take higher-percentage shots, they could control the game. Additionally, Jaylen Adams coming off the bench adds a valuable scoring option and stabilises their rotations.

Conclusion

With a recent shift towards defensive prowess, South East Melbourne enters this game with renewed confidence and cohesion, making them a formidable opponent for the inconsistent Kings. While Sydney boasts star power and should not be underestimated, the Phoenix’s unity and defensive strength could potentially see them snatch a win as the underdog in what could be a closely contested matchup.