Cairns Taipans vs Perth Wildcats NBL Round 12 Game Preview

Dec 12, 2024

2 min read

Tip-Off 8:00 PM AEDT, December 14, 2024 | Cairns Convention Centre

Cairns Taipans vs Perth Wildcats Expert Analysis

The Cairns Taipans host the Perth Wildcats in a battle where both teams have clear strengths and glaring weaknesses.

Cairns, desperate to break their 11-game losing streak, come into this matchup with the slight edge of home-court advantage and a potentially favorable matchup against Perth's porous defence. The Wildcats, led by the unstoppable Bryce Cotton, will look to exploit Cairns’ inconsistency, but their road woes and defensive lapses may give the Taipans a fighting chance.

Key Matchups

Cairns’ Offence vs. Perth’s Defence

Cairns have struggled offensively this season, ranking 9th in points per game (83.2) and last in field goal percentage (41.8%). However, they face a Perth defence that ranks dead last in the league, conceding 96.2 points per game and a 48.3% field goal percentage to opponents. This presents a rare opportunity for the Taipans to find a rhythm, especially if Sam Waardenburg and Taran Armstrong can continue their recent form. Perth’s interior defence, already soft, will further suffer without Kristian Doolittle, making them vulnerable to Cairns’ improved ball movement and second-chance points.

Bryce Cotton vs. Cairns’ Defence

Bryce Cotton is in MVP-caliber form, averaging an astonishing 49.33 points over his last three games. Containing him is nearly impossible, but Cairns must find a way to limit his impact, especially in clutch situations. Expect the Taipans to throw multiple defensive looks at Cotton while trying to force other Perth players to beat them.

Key Stats

Cairns at Home: The average total score at Cairns Convention Centre this season is just 170.5 points, significantly lower than the league-wide average.
Perth’s Defensive Woes: The Wildcats rank last in the league for opposition field goal percentage (48.3%) and points per game (96.2).
Cairns’ Rebounding Improvement: Despite struggles, Cairns were competitive on the boards in Round 11, creating more second-chance opportunities.
Close Games: Cairns’ last two home losses to Perth have been decided by three points.

Why Cairns Wins

Cairns can exploit Perth’s lack of defensive discipline, particularly in the paint and on the perimeter. The combination of Waardenburg’s versatility and Armstrong’s improved playmaking gives the Taipans an avenue to attack. If Cairns can slow the game’s pace and limit Perth’s scoring in transition, they have a realistic chance to edge out a victory in front of their home crowd.

Why Perth Wins

The Wildcats’ offence, led by Bryce Cotton, is unstoppable at the moment. Perth’s ability to play at a high tempo and outscore opponents in shootouts gives them the upper hand in what could become a fast-paced game. If Cairns fails to contain Cotton or forces inefficient shots on their own possessions, Perth will likely take control.

Prediction

This game is closer than it appears on paper, given Perth’s defensive vulnerabilities and Cairns’ incremental improvement. However, Bryce Cotton’s red-hot form and the Wildcats' ability to score in bunches make them difficult to bet against. Cairns will keep it close, but Perth’s firepower should ultimately prevail.