Cairns Taipans vs New Zealand Breakers NBL Round 9 Game Preview

Tip off is at 5:30pm AEDT on Saturday 16th November

Cairns Taipans vs New Zealand Breakers Analysis

The New Zealand Breakers, looking to redeem themselves after a tough road loss to Tasmania, head into Cairns on Saturday night to take on the struggling Taipans.

With both teams seeking a shift in momentum, the Breakers will try to even their road trip record, while Cairns hopes to snap a seven-game losing streak that has left them at the bottom of the standings.

Key Matchups and Analysis

• Breakers’ Offense vs. Taipans’ Defense: New Zealand has been a low-volume shooting team this season, averaging just 67.6 field goal attempts per game, but they’ve been highly efficient with the league’s second-best field goal (47.5%) and three-point percentages (36.5%).

  
  

  This efficiency is well-suited to exploit a Cairns defense that allows a league-high 94.1 points per game and struggles with rebounding and second-chance points. Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Matt Mooney, Sam Mennenga, and Karim Lopez will likely be key scoring threats, and if they find their range early, it could be a long night for Cairns.

  
  

• Cairns’ Offense Struggles: Averaging just 83.6 points per game, the Taipans rank 9th in scoring and have struggled to find consistent offensive output. Taran Armstrong’s return might provide a boost, offering some much-needed creativity, but the team will need more than a spark to overcome New Zealand’s defensive efficiency, which ranks top 4 in opponent field goal percentage.

  
  

  Cairns has also been turnover-prone, giving up the most in the league, a tough stat against a disciplined Breakers defense.

  
  

• Rebounding and Second-Chance Opportunities: Cairns’ weakness on the boards (45.5 opponent RPG allowed) opens up second-chance scoring opportunities, a potential game-changer for New Zealand.

  
  

  Look for Karim Lopez to capitalize, as he’s averaged 7+ rebounds in four of his last five games and has been a consistent double-digit scorer, putting up 13+ points in three of his last four games.

Key Stats Cairns Taipans vs New Zealand Breakers

• New Zealand: The Breakers rank 2nd in FG% and 3-point percentage, making them one of the most efficient offensive teams. They’re also a strong defensive rebounding team, limiting their opponents’ second-chance points.

  
  

• Cairns: The Taipans have the league’s highest opponent rebound rate (45.5 RPG allowed) and most second-chance points allowed (16.2 per game). On a 1-6 ATS streak, they’ve struggled to keep games close, particularly against stronger offensive teams.

Why New Zealand Wins

With a balanced offensive attack and a defense capable of frustrating Cairns, New Zealand has a solid edge heading into this matchup. They’ll look to establish their rhythm early and avoid a repeat of last week’s poor shooting performance.

Their ability to take advantage of Cairns’ defensive lapses, especially with efficient scoring from Jackson-Cartwright, Mennenga, and Lopez, should allow the Breakers to control the tempo and cover the line.

Why Cairns Wins

To stay competitive, Cairns will need to keep the score close and push the pace, leaning on Taran Armstrong’s playmaking to find open looks and create space inside. Their best shot at victory might be an offensive outburst if New Zealand’s shooting cools off, as it did in their recent loss to Tasmania.

Conclusion

New Zealand has the tools to dictate the game, with a controlled offense and rebounding dominance that play into Cairns’ weaknesses. Expect a lower-scoring game with New Zealand’s defense limiting the Taipans’ opportunities.

If the Breakers regain their shooting form, they should come out on top and cover the line, with a strong night likely from Lopez on the boards.