Cairns Taipans vs Illawarra Hawks NBL Game Preview

Saturday, 8:00 PM AEDT at Cairns Convention Centre

Cairns Taipans vs Illawarra Hawks Analysis

The Illawarra Hawks are off to a flying start this season, while the Cairns Taipans are battling injury concerns, particularly around guard Taran Armstrong. Though Armstrong's availability will impact how close this game is, the Hawks are predicted to dominate regardless, thanks to their high-powered offence and superior depth with Will Hickey, Lachlan Olbrich and Hyunjung Lee arguably the most elite second unit to start the season.

Key Matchups

Sam Froling & Darius Days (ILL) vs. Cairns Frontcourt: Froling and Days have been punishing opponents in the paint, and with Tanner Groves out for Cairns, the Taipans will struggle to match their physicality. This battle inside will be crucial, especially with Cairns already thin on depth.

Rob Edwards (CNS) vs. Hawks Perimeter Defence: Edwards has to step up in the absence of Armstrong and provide offensive leadership. The Hawks’ perimeter defence, likely Will Hickey for the most part, will focus on limiting his influence, and if they succeed, Cairns could find themselves scrambling for points.

Key Stats

Illawarra Hawks

• Lead the NBL in scoring with 104 points per game.

• Top the league with an average of 54.8 points in the paint per game.

• 50.3% field goal percentage, ranked 1st in the league.

Cairns Taipans

• Ranked 9th in rebounds with 40.7 per game.

• 39.2% from three-point range, ranked 2nd, a key weapon if Armstrong is sidelined.

• Allow 92.3 points per game, 8th in the league, highlighting their defensive struggles.

Why Illawarra Wins

The Hawks have been dominant offensively, leading the league in points per game and field goal percentage. Their depth, particularly on the bench, allows them to maintain intensity throughout the game, and with Cairns’ frontcourt weakened, Froling and Days should have their way inside. Illawarra's well-rounded attack and solid bench production from Hickey, lee and Olbrich make them strong favourites.

Why Cairns Wins

If Taran Armstrong plays, Cairns has a fighting chance. His playmaking would allow Rob Edwards and Pedro Bradshaw to play more comfortably in their natural roles. Additionally, their high three-point shooting percentage could help them keep pace with Illawarra's high-scoring offence if they hit their shots consistently.

Even if Armstrong plays, Illawarra’s depth and firepower make them the clear favourites. The Hawks have multiple scoring threats and a strong presence inside, while Cairns are struggling with injuries and depth issues. Expect Illawarra to extend their impressive form and secure another win.