Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers NBL Round 12 Game Preview

Tip-Off 5:30 PM AEDT, December 14, 2024 | Adelaide Entertainment Centre

Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers Expert Analysis

The Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers clash in a game that highlights two teams at different points in their struggles this season. For Adelaide, the return of Montrezl Harrell signals a fresh start and a potential turning point. Harrell's dominant inside presence is expected to revitalize a team that has shown flashes of brilliance but lacked consistency, particularly in his absence. Kendric Davis has been in stellar form, but the addition of Harrell allows the 36ers to become a more balanced and versatile unit, capable of attacking from both the perimeter and the post.

The New Zealand Breakers, on the other hand, are in a free fall. The Breakers’ defence, once a hallmark of their identity, has become porous since the FIBA break, allowing easy baskets in transition and struggling to maintain structure in half-court sets. Offensively, the team has been heavily reliant on Parker Jackson-Cartwright, whose individual efforts have not translated into wins. New Zealand’s poor spacing and rushed shooting are significant hurdles they must overcome if they hope to end their losing streak.

Key Matchups

Montrezl Harrell vs. Tacko Fall

The battle of the big men is set to be a key storyline. Harrell’s versatility, energy, and offensive prowess (20.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG) give Adelaide a significant advantage in this matchup. Tacko Fall, while a towering presence, has struggled to integrate with New Zealand’s defensive schemes, often leaving his teammates out of position. Expect Harrell to dominate in transition and exploit mismatches in the paint.

Adelaide’s Perimeter Offence vs. New Zealand’s Defensive Rotations

The 36ers boast solid shooting from beyond the arc (35.3%, ranked 5th), while the Breakers struggle to close out on shooters (opponents shoot 36.3% from deep against them). Kendric Davis’ ability to create off the dribble and distribute will be critical in generating open looks for Adelaide’s perimeter players.

Key Stats

• Adelaide with Harrell: The 36ers are +59 with Harrell on the court this season compared to -99 without him.

• New Zealand’s Struggles: The Breakers are averaging just 79 points per game in their last seven matches and have lost by an average margin of 23 points in their last five.

• Adelaide’s Defensive Concerns: The 36ers rank last in opponent 3-point percentage (39.9%), which could give the Breakers a chance to find some rhythm from deep.

Why Adelaide Wins

The 36ers have the offensive firepower and star power to outclass New Zealand, especially with the return of Harrell. His presence on the boards and in the paint will open up opportunities for Kendric Davis and Adelaide’s shooters. Additionally, the Breakers’ inability to defend in transition or maintain defensive discipline will likely leave them exposed.

Why New Zealand Wins

While the Breakers have been poor, they do have the size and potential to cause problems if Tacko Fall can dominate the paint defensively and convert efficiently on offence. If the Breakers can find success in slowing the pace and forcing Adelaide into low-percentage shots, they might keep the game close and steal a victory.

Prediction

This matchup heavily favors Adelaide. The 36ers will capitalize on their opponent’s defensive woes and lack of offensive rhythm. With Harrell back in the lineup, Adelaide should control the boards and dominate inside, while Kendric Davis continues his stellar form.